2014 Arkle Chase

Arkle Chase 2 miles

Champagne Fever is bidding to become the third horse to win three different races at the Cheltenham Festival. The other two are the legendary Flyingbolt in the mid 1960s and Bob's Worth who did this from 2011 to 2013. 

He's an immensely likeable horse who has battled bravely to win the Champion Bumper and the Supreme Novices Hurdle previously at the Festival. The ground shouldn't be a problem for him. The problem with him is his disastrous last race. He made a horrible mistake at the second last in the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas weakening into third place. The issue is that since the late 1980s only one horse has finished outside the top-two in a completed chase (not counting falls and unseated) and gone on to win the Arkle Chase. That horse was Contraband in 2005 who never won another race in his life! Contrband also came third in his previous run but he was beaten about five lengths not the about fifteen lengths that Champagne Fever was beaten. Front runners have a poor record in this race. I know that Mullins and Walsh may not try to lead but I remember when this tactic didn't work for Fair Along who finished second in the 2007 Arkle which was one of the worst renewals in recent memory.

My choice for this race is Trifolium who finished second in that race where Champagne Fever finished third (the winner of the race is out injured for the rest of the season). He won the Irish equivalent race by nine lengths. I'm a little concerned about whether he will handle the quicker ground. However, he was a close third on good ground in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle. The Cheltenham Preview comments have been strongly in his favour.

Brick Red doesn't look good and probably would prefer softer ground. It's also rare for a horse who ran on the turf to win this race.

Dodging Bullets is a consistent horse. However, I've seen a few comments that he didn't pick up after the last in his recent defeat at Newbury. On re-watching the finish I suspect that this probably the case. He has an excellent record at Cheltenham bar an awful run in last season's Supreme Novices Hurdle. The Racing Post comments about him for that Cheltenham race say "who found nothing for pressure having raced wide". Looking at other parts of his past form it looks like he doesn't want a battle which is exactly the sort of horse you don't want fighting for you in the finish up the Cheltenham hill!

Grandouet was a near top-class hurdler. However, while he has ran well over fences he still hasn't won and I can't remember if a maiden chaser has ever won this top-class race. 

Rock On Ruby was a top-class hurdler winning the Champion Hurdle in 2012 and then coming second in it last year. He's one of the few hurdlers to have beaten Hurricane Fly but Overturn did that in the same race and although Overturn was a gusty horse you have to wonder if Hurricane Fly was totally right that day. Only one horse has won the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle and that was Sir Ken (I was the only one who knew that at the Newcastle Racecourse Cheltenham Festival Preview!). However, Rock On Ruby is now nine years old. In fact, only Sir Ken and Danish Flight have won it at that age since its inception in 1946. Overturn was another good hurdler who failed last year as a nine-year-old. Rock On Ruby has an exceptional record at Cheltenham but I think his chance has gone. Other top-class hurdlers have won this such as Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe but then the equally top-class Celtic Shot failed.

Ted Veale won the County Hurdle at last year's Festival but his chase form isn't good enough.

Valdez's chase form looks decent. However, most Arkle winners were good class hurdlers and his form wasn't great over timber. Certainly, you can't fault three wins from his three chase starts.

Western Warhorse won his last chase start but is out-classed here.

So in conclusion it's Trifolium who I have gone for.