2014 Supreme Novices Hurdle

2 miles 110 yards novice hurdle

These days you are looking for a horse who has not come up from the turf and then gone hurdling. The watering which sometimes has occurred and the wet weather we have had this year has produced softer ground. This blunts the speed of the flat-bred horses.

Personally for this race I like the Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh combination of Vautour. French breds have a good record in novice hurdles at the Festival. He's won on good to yielding ground at Navan so he's not just a soft-ground slogger. He's won on three stiff tracks (Navan, Punchestown and Leopardstown). He's won both the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle and the influential Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle.

I've gone through the comments from the Cheltenham preview events about him. The main point of argument is whether he was given a soft lead when beating The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte. Personally, I think he was always holding The Tullow Tank by a comfortable margin. Certainly, Vautour is the selection of many people at the preview events.

Irving has won four from four over hurdles including two Grade 2 events. He acts on any ground conditions. However, he has never raced left-handed over jumps. If you don't understand the difference between left-handed and right-handed the former applies to racecourse which race anti-clockwise and the latter applies to those that race clockwise. If you don't think that's important you need to know that racehorses such as Desert Orchid were significantly better at racing right-handed. Irving's has won three times on the flat in Germany but they were all right-handed. His only left-hand win was a three runner affair at Fontainebleau Racecourse!

Gilgamboa is another who has to prove he'll handle the surface. His only defeat was on the only occasion he's ran on ground faster than soft. He's in great form having won the Boylesports Hurdle last time out (the old Schweppes/Ladbroke Hurdle).

Josses Hill is a possibility. However most winners of the Supreme won last time out. Although he lost he only did so by half-a-length.

Splash Of Ginge won the high-class handicap Betfair Hurdle last time out (the old Tote Gold Trophy). However, today is his eighth race since September and I suspect the edge has been taken off him. Also his form looks like that of a flat-track bully and I feel that Cheltenham's undulations will not suit him.

Three Kingdoms is a rare second season novice to run in this (Brave Inca won this race in 2004 as one of those). However, he had a horrible run in the Fred Winter Hurdle at last year's Festival.

Un Ace needs a jockey as poor Jason Maguire suffered an injury yesterday and misses the Festival. He's won his only race over hurdles. However, that was only a Class 4 event and Doncaster is different to Cheltenham.

Valseur Lido is another soft-ground horse.

Vaniteux bounced back to form at Doncaster after a poor run at Kempton. He's only won Class 3 and Class 4 events and I think the softly softly approach to Supreme winners has passed by.

Western Boy was only 3/4 lengths behind Vautour in his last run. He's consistent and looks in good form. I feel that his style of running which is to come from behind isn't what is needed for this race.

Wicklow Brave is a threat to Vautour. However, Ruby Walsh had the choice of the two horses and went for Vautour. Some people have argued that this is because he wants to remain on the right side of Vautour's owner. Personally, I trust his judgement on this.

Wilde Blue Yonder looks a very good hurdler. However, he's fallen on his last two runs and although he'd have probably won both if he'd stood up it's not a good sign.

So in conclusion it's Vantour for me!