2014 RSA Chase

2014 RSA Chase

Ballycasey was the strong favourite here but has drifted in the betting. I have doubts about his stamina. I tend to be wary about using point-to-point form. However, if you include his three PTP he has had four runs at three miles and has won none of them.

Smad Place and Sam Winner have spent more than one season over hurdles. This is very rare for a winner of this race to do this. If you have a decent chaser you will send them over fences as soon as possible.

Carlingford Lough is a threat. He was unlucky to unseat last time out as he was hampered. He's a second season chaser and it's not common for them to win this (only Rule Supreme comes to mind). 

Morning Assembly is my selection here. He's won on yielding and yielding-to-soft so the ground should be ok. He's been off quite a while but I think that might be less important than it was in the past. He does have to reverse form with Carlingford Lough. Morning Assembly has a good record at stiff tracks. 

Le Bec has a consistent record over fences but hasn't run in above Class 2 races. He has won at the Cheltenham although he was well beaten at last year's Festival.

Corrin Wood has won all his three races over fences. However, he has never ran in a chase with more than four runners and I don't know if he will cope with the larger field (he has won a 10 runner hurdle race). He has also ran in a handicap chase. This is rare for an RSA winner. The two winners I can remember doing this are Young Hustler in 1993 and Rule Supreme in 2004. The latter horse had little choice after winning a chase on 30th April 2003. This meant that the Irish-trained horse wasn't a novice according to Irish rules but he was according to British rules.

I like Don Cossack's chances and it was a tough choice between him and Morning Assembly. In the end I slightly prefer the latter.

O'Faolains Boy is too inconsistent. Many Clouds is another who hasn't ran in a large chase field.