2014 Champion Chase

Champion Chase

This looks a weak race especially with Sprinter Sacre missing from it. The favourite is Sire de Grugy. He is certainly the best two mile chaser in the absence of Sprinter Sacre. However, he hasn't won in either of his two runs at Cheltenham. He also missed last year's Festival for no obvious reason and I can only assume that the horse's connections didn't want to run. Therefore, I am very wary about his chances.

Captain Conan was disappointing in last year's JLT Chase. It's a good chance that he didn't stay the trip (I was keen on his chances in the Arkle). However, he's only ran once this year and was well beaten by Sire De Grugy and Somersby. Horses have won the Champion Chase after only one race (Flagship Uberalles 2002, Call Equiname 1999 and Martha's Son 1997). However, it's not common.

Arvika Ligeonniere was dismal in last year's Arkle and was pulled up. It's a common view that he's much better running right-handed. He has won left-handed at Leopardstown but he has now not run well in two runs at Cheltenham.

Hinterland is a novice. Two novices have ran well in this (Strong Promise 1997 and Venn Ottery 2004). Strong Promise was favourite in 1997 but made a bad mistake three out when running well. I've seen jockey Norman Williamson blamed but it looked like a novicey mistake. Venn Ottery had breathing problems and faded after running well. Still I can't be on Hinterland side.

Sizing Europe has been a great horse. Unlucky when getting injured during the 2008 Champion Hurdle. He has won the Arkle and then won the Champion Chase and then second twice in the next two years. However, he ran very badly last time out. The ground may not have suited but I think his chance has gone.

In the end I've gone for Somersby. I'm wary about him as he's unseated twice in his last four runs. However, he has a good record at the course and in a open race he has a better chance than his odds.

Kid Cassidy won at Cheltenham first time out but had an awful race at Leopardstown last time out. The ground will be more in his favour but he's too inconsistent. 

Baily Green was a surprise second in last year's Arkle at 33/1. However, his general form doesn't stack up and the Arkle wasn't good last year.

Module and Special Tiara don't look good enough. Wishfull Thinking won well in a handicap last time out but I think his time has gone.