2014 Shoulder races for Tuesday Cheltenham

I have no idea why the races outside the main ones of the day are sometimes called the 'shoulder races'. However, I like the term as I have no idea where it comes from and I'll use it!

Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase 

Pity poor Simon Holt and the course commentator who have to use that mouthful! I prefer the official name of the Festival Handicap Chase.

I like Time For Rupert for this race. I've backed him a couple of times at the Festival (Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup). He's gone massively down the handicap (19 pounds since November). He's not won since December 2011 but he's only run six times since then. He's loves Cheltenham and I hope he can come back to form (he ran well last time out). He was only beaten 10 lengths in the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup so it's amazing to find him over half-way down the weights in this handicap.

Mares Hurdle

Go on Quevega! Having said that for the sixth successive year she won't be carrying my money. This wonder mare has won this race for the last five seasons and is a shade of odds-on to do it again. Personally, I think Annie Power should have ran in this race and I suspect she'd have won.

My actual selection is the consistent Cailin Annamh. She'll have no problem with the ground and I think will run a big race. She's not ran since October but that must because she is a good ground horse (exactly the same race planning was used for her in the previous season).

Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase

Named this year after the late and great Terry Biddlecombe. I can't really see past the big three of Foxrock, Shotgun Paddy and Shutthefrontdoor. Foxrock is a six-year-old and they don't have a great record in this race. I suspect that Shotgun Paddy needs soft ground. He ran well on one of his runs on ground quicker than soft but not on the other. I've looked into the progeny of his sire Brian Boru and it is dominated by horses who need soft ground. Therefore, I've gone for Shutthefrontdoor. The concern is that he ran an awful race here last time out. It's the only bad run he's ever put in so I'll hope it's a one off. His other form at Cheltenham is very good. His jockey Nina Carberry has a good recent record in this race without ever quite winning it. He is also one of the Jonjo O'Neill/JP McManus horses and they also have a good record in this race.

Racing4rewards Novices Handicap Chase

Ericht will carry my money here. He's ran decently at the Festival in the past and his bad run at Kempton in his penultimate start was due to a leg that got injured in the race.